@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp14317,
            	author={Eisenhauer, Philipp and Gabler, Janos and Janys, Lena},
            	title={Structural Models for Policy-Making: Coping with Parametric Uncertainty},
            	year={2021},
	month={Apr},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={14317},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp14317},
	abstract={The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policymaking  as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides us with a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in their policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations from using different formal rules on decision-making under uncertainty.},
	keywords={uncertainty quantification;structural estimation;statistical decision rules},
            }