TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Clemens, Michael A.
AU  - Ginn, Thomas
        TI  - Global Mobility and the Threat of Pandemics: Evidence from Three Centuries
        PY  - 2020/Dec/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 13947
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp13947
        AB  - Countries restrict the overall extent of international travel and migration to balance the expected costs and benefits of mobility. Given the ever-present threat of new, future pandemics, how should permanent restrictions on mobility respond? A simple theoretical framework predicts that reduced exposure to pre-pandemic international mobility causes slightly slower arrival of the pathogen. A standard epidemiological model predicts no decrease in the harm of the pathogen if travel ceases thereafter and only a slight decrease in the harm (for plausible parameters) if travel does not cease. 
We test these predictions across four global pandemics in three different centuries: the influenza pandemics that began in 1889, 1918, 1957, and 2009. We find that in all cases, even a draconian 50 percent reduction in pre-pandemic international mobility is associated with 1–2 weeks later arrival and no detectable reduction in final mortality. The case for permanent limits on international mobility to reduce the harm of future pandemics is weak.
        KW  - morbidity
KW  - mortality
KW  - health systems
KW  - H1N1
KW  - Swine flu
KW  - Russian flu
KW  - Asian flu
KW  - Spanish flu
KW  - MERS
KW  - SARS
KW  - Zika
KW  - HIV
KW  - influenza
KW  - flu
KW  - Coronavirus
KW  - COVID-19
KW  - health
KW  - disease
KW  - epidemic
KW  - pandemic
KW  - migration
KW  - mobility
KW  - movement
KW  - border
KW  - international
KW  - global
KW  - globalization
        ER  -