TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Bernhardt, Robert
AU  - Wunnava, Phanindra V.
        TI  - The CPS Citizenship Question and Survey Refusals: Causal and Semi-Causal Evidence Featuring a Two-Stage Regression Discontinuity Design
        PY  - 2020/Jun/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 13350
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp13350
        AB  - The unsuccessful attempt to add a citizenship question to the Census has drawn attention to citizenship questions on other surveys. Simultaneously, researchers have noted a recent increase in Current Population Survey non-response. We combine these topics, studying the effect of the CPS citizenship question on refusals. We use the question's sudden introduction in 1994 as a natural experiment and obtain causal estimates via a regression discontinuity design (RDD). In January 1994, we find an immediate and sustained 20-50% jump in refusals. However, this cannot be attributed to the question alone, as numerous other survey characteristics were revised. We employ a two-stage RDD to relate state-specific refusal discontinuities to state characteristics. Discontinuity size is positively related to non-citizen and Hispanic populations, and a proxy for citizenship question item non-response. 
An 8% increase in refusals is potentially attributable to the question. Moreover, at the threshold, there is weak evidence of a discrete decrease in states' reported Hispanic populations. When non-citizenship is observable, state non-citizen population is positively related with refusals. These results imply the question makes non-citizens and Hispanics reluctant to take the survey. We recommend there be a trial to precisely estimate the question's effects, and decide if it merits continuation.
        KW  - current population survey
KW  - non-response
KW  - survey refusal
KW  - citizenship status
KW  - immigration
KW  - Regression Discontinuity
KW  - panel data
        ER  -