TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Brodeur, Abel
AU  - Cook, Nikolai
AU  - Heyes, Anthony
        TI  - Methods Matter: P-Hacking and Causal Inference in Economics
        PY  - 2018/Aug/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 11796
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp11796
        AB  - The economics 'credibility revolution' has promoted the identification of causal relationships using difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV), randomized control trials (RCT) and regression discontinuity design (RDD) methods. The extent to which a reader should trust claims about the statistical significance of results proves very sensitive to method. Applying multiple methods to 13,440 hypothesis tests reported in 25 top economics journals in 2015, we show that selective publication and p-hacking is a substantial problem in research employing DID and (in particular) IV. RCT and RDD are much less problematic. Almost 25% of claims of marginally significant results in IV papers are misleading.
        KW  - research methods
KW  - causal inference
KW  - p-curves
KW  - p-hacking
KW  - publication bias
        ER  -