IZA DP No. 12412: Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia
forthcoming as 'Migration and Knowledge Diffusion: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia' in: Review of Economics and Statistics
During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to over 600,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of migrants in post-conflict reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, using exports as outcome. Using confidential social security data to capture intensity of refugee workers to German industriesÃ¢â‚¬â€œand exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as instrumentÃ¢â‚¬â€we find an elasticity of exports to return migration between 0.08 to 0.24. Our results are stronger in knowledge-intensive industries and for workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills.