TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Constant, Amelie F.
AU  - Zimmermann, Klaus F.
        TI  - The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
        PY  - 2003/Oct/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 885
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp885
        AB  - While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return
migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using
Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of
migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the
states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification
and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European
immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants.
The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early
after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home
country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once
out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by
remittances and family considerations.
        KW  - duration analysis
KW  - qualitative choice models
KW  - guestworkers
KW  - repeat migration
KW  - Markov chain analysis
        ER  -