TY - RPRT AU - Advani, Arun AU - Sloczynski, Tymon TI - Mostly Harmless Simulations? On the Internal Validity of Empirical Monte Carlo Studies PY - 2013/Dec/ PB - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) CY - Bonn T2 - IZA Discussion Paper IS - 7874 UR - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp7874 AB - In this paper we evaluate the premise from the recent literature on Monte Carlo studies that an empirically motivated simulation exercise is informative about the actual ranking of various estimators when applied to a particular problem. We consider two alternative designs and provide an empirical test for both of them. We conclude that a necessary condition for the simulations to be informative about the true ranking is that the treatment effect in simulations must be equal to the (unknown) true effect. This severely limits the usefulness of such procedures, since were the effect known, the procedure would not be necessary. KW - empirical Monte Carlo studies KW - programme evaluation KW - treatment effects ER -