@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp5463, author={Agnese, Pablo}, title={The Japanese Lost Decade and Beyond: A Chain Reaction Theory Approach}, year={2011}, month={Jan}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={5463}, url={https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp5463}, abstract={The Japanese lost decade has become an intriguing puzzle for both economists and policy-makers alike, as the unemployment rate climbed to unprecedented levels and the growth rate of productivity decreased considerably. More recent times seem to present with a more optimistic outlook, but this is not yet the last word in the matter. In this paper we estimate two alternative multi-equation structural models descriptive of the Japanese labor market, that are then used to conduct dynamic simulations both for the lost decade period (1990-2002) and beyond (2002-2007). Our results point, primarily, to the damaging effects of the ever-increasing public debt as a major source of labor market inefficiencies. In addition, we find the fall in labor union power to have a significant easing effect on the unemployment rate, but also to be a major driver in the apparently eroding pattern of the labor income share in recent years.}, keywords={labor market dynamics;structural multi-equation models;chain reaction theory;simulations}, }