TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Blanco, Mariana
AU  - Engelmann, Dirk
AU  - Koch, Alexander K.
AU  - Normann, Hans-Theo
        TI  - Preferences and Beliefs in a Sequential Social Dilemma: A Within-Subjects Analysis
        PY  - 2009/Dec/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 4624
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp4624
        AB  - Within-subject data from sequential social dilemma experiments reveal a correlation of first-and second-mover decisions for which two channels may be responsible, that our experiment allows to separate: i) a direct, preference-based channel that influences both first- and second-mover decisions; ii) an indirect channel, where second-mover decisions influence beliefs via a consensus effect, and the first-mover decision is a best response to these beliefs. We find strong evidence for the indirect channel: beliefs about second-mover cooperation are biased toward own second-mover behavior, and most subjects best respond to stated beliefs. But when first movers know the true probability of second-mover cooperation, subjects' own second moves still have predictive power regarding their first moves, suggesting that the direct channel also plays a role.
        KW  - consensus effect
KW  - experimental economics
KW  - social dilemmas
        ER  -