%0 Report
        %A Blanco, Mariana
%A Engelmann, Dirk
%A Koch, Alexander K.
%A Normann, Hans-Theo
        %T Preferences and Beliefs in a Sequential Social Dilemma: A Within-Subjects Analysis
        %D 2009
        %8 2009 Dec
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 4624
        %U https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp4624
        %X Within-subject data from sequential social dilemma experiments reveal a correlation of first-and second-mover decisions for which two channels may be responsible, that our experiment allows to separate: i) a direct, preference-based channel that influences both first- and second-mover decisions; ii) an indirect channel, where second-mover decisions influence beliefs via a consensus effect, and the first-mover decision is a best response to these beliefs. We find strong evidence for the indirect channel: beliefs about second-mover cooperation are biased toward own second-mover behavior, and most subjects best respond to stated beliefs. But when first movers know the true probability of second-mover cooperation, subjects' own second moves still have predictive power regarding their first moves, suggesting that the direct channel also plays a role.
        %K consensus effect
%K experimental economics
%K social dilemmas