TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Elinder, Mikael
AU  - Jordahl, Henrik
AU  - Poutvaara, Panu
        TI  - Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
        PY  - 2008/Oct/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 3763
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp3763
        AB  - We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social Democrats proposed budget cuts affecting parents with young children before the 1994 election, but made generous promises to the same group before the 1998 election. Since parents with older children were largely unaffected we use a difference-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but not to the later implementation of the reforms.
        KW  - economic voting
KW  - pocketbook voting
KW  - self-interest
KW  - prospective voting
KW  - retrospective voting
KW  - elections
KW  - child care
        ER  -