@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp3165, author={Staghøj, Jonas and Svarer, Michael and Rosholm, Michael}, title={A Statistical Programme Assignment Model}, year={2007}, month={Nov}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={3165}, url={https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp3165}, abstract={When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present assignment mechanism, which is based on the discretionary choice of case workers. This is done in a duration model context, using the timing-of-events framework to identify causal effects. We compare different assignment mechanisms, and the results suggest that a significant reduction in the average duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the implementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and case workers.}, keywords={heterogeneous effects;targeting;profiling;statistical treatment rules}, }