TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Theodoropoulos, Nikos
AU  - Singleton, Carl
        TI  - Returns to Tenure: A Critical Assessment of the Evidence and Interpretation
        PY  - 2026/Jun/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18705
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp18705
        AB  - This paper assesses the empirical evidence on returns to employer tenure. Using published studies and new illustrative estimates from British linked employer–employee payroll data, we show that estimated wage–tenure profiles vary substantially across data sources, wage measures, samples, and empirical specifications. We argue that this reflects a deeper issue: tenure coefficients should not be interpreted mechanically as causal returns to firm-specific human capital, since they may capture broader features of the employment relationship and the wage-setting environment. The literature on returns to tenure is best understood as delivering context-dependent empirical parameters, rather than convincing evidence for a single stable causal effect of remaining with the same employer.
        KW  - Seniority
KW  - Wages
KW  - Employer-employee data
KW  - Mincer wage equation
        ER  -