%0 Report
        %A Aparicio, Juan P.
%A Jetter, Michael
%A Parsons, Christopher
        %T Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC
        %D 2023
        %8 2023 Apr
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 16054
        %U https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp16054
        %X In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy's effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel's demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model's predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.
        %K civil war
%K conflict resolution
%K demobilization
%K hearts-and-minds
%K information campaigns