TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Desmet, Klaus
AU  - Ortín, Ignacio Ortuño
AU  - Özak, Ömer
        TI  - Is Secessionism Mostly about Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions
        PY  - 2022/Sep/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 15570
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp15570
        AB  - This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,003 subnational regions in 173 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity trumps income in determining a region's propensity to secede. Removing identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 7.5% to 0.6% of the population.
        KW  - secessionism
KW  - separatism
KW  - federalism
KW  - conflict
KW  - identity
KW  - political economy
KW  - international relations
        ER  -