@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp13838,
            	author={Arenas, Andreu and Calsamiglia, Caterina and Loviglio, Annalisa},
            	title={What Is at Stake without High-Stakes Exams? Students' Evaluation and Admission to College at the Time of COVID-19},
            	year={2020},
	month={Nov},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={13838},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp13838},
	abstract={The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 inhibited face-to-face education and constrained exam taking. In many countries worldwide, high-stakes exams happening at the end of the school year determine college admissions. This paper investigates the impact of using historical data of school and high-stakes exams results to train a model to predict high-stakes exams given the available data in the Spring. The most transparent and accurate model turns out to be a linear regression model with high school GPA as the main predictor. Further analysis of the predictions reflect how high-stakes exams relate to GPA in high school for different subgroups in the population. 
Predicted scores slightly advantage females and low SES individuals, who perform relatively worse in high-stakes exams than in high school. Our preferred model accounts for about 50% of the out-of- sample variation in the high-stakes exam. On average, the student rank using predicted scores differs from the actual rank by almost 17 percentiles. This suggests that either high-stakes exams capture individual skills that are not measured by high school grades or that high-stakes exams are a noisy measure of the same skill.},
	keywords={college allocation;high-stakes exams;performance prediction;COVID-19},
            }