TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Wachter, Till von
AU  - Bender, Stefan
        TI  - In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers
        PY  - 2004/Oct/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 1348
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp1348
        AB  - We exploit administrative data on young German workers and their employers to study the
long-term effects of an early job loss. To account for non-random sorting of workers into firms
with different turnover rates and for selective job mobility, we use changes over time in firm-
and age-specific labor demand as an instrument for displacement. We find that wage losses
of young job losers are initially 15% but fade to zero within five years. Only workers leaving
very large establishments suffer persistent losses. A comparison of estimators implies that
initial sorting, negative selection, and voluntary job mobility may have biased previous U.S.
studies finding permanent effects of early displacements.
        KW  - adverse selection
KW  - job displacement
KW  - job search
KW  - initial assigment
        ER  -