%0 Report
        %A Wachter, Till von
%A Bender, Stefan
        %T In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers
        %D 2004
        %8 2004 Oct
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 1348
        %U https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp1348
        %X We exploit administrative data on young German workers and their employers to study the
long-term effects of an early job loss. To account for non-random sorting of workers into firms
with different turnover rates and for selective job mobility, we use changes over time in firm-
and age-specific labor demand as an instrument for displacement. We find that wage losses
of young job losers are initially 15% but fade to zero within five years. Only workers leaving
very large establishments suffer persistent losses. A comparison of estimators implies that
initial sorting, negative selection, and voluntary job mobility may have biased previous U.S.
studies finding permanent effects of early displacements.
        %K adverse selection
%K job displacement
%K job search
%K initial assigment