TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
AU  - Valletta, Robert G.
        TI  - Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
        PY  - 2020/May/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 13294
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp13294
        AB  - The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. 
The possible paths vary widely, but absent hiring activity on an unprecedented scale, unemployment could remain in double-digits into 2021. We also find that the increase in measured unemployment could be meaningfully tempered by a substantial reduction in labor force participation.
        KW  - labor market
KW  - unemployment
KW  - employment
KW  - labor force
KW  - COVID-19
        ER  -