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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18285
December 2025
Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment

Declining U.S. college enrollments over the past 15 years have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using college-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the 4-year sector but by 2-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30% since the Great Recession's peak. Second, one-third of this apparent decline is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as offering 4-year degrees. Third, pre-Great Recession data shows a 1 percentage point increase in local unemployment rates increases first-time community college enrollment by 2%, suggesting many students are on the margin between community college and job opportunities. For-profit college enrollments are also countercyclical, while 4-year college enrollments are acyclical. Our estimates suggest strengthening labor markets explain 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. Fourth, students whose enrollment decisions are most sensitive to labor market conditions are unlikely to have completed degrees. Though declining enrollments are a challenge for community colleges, it is unclear whether they are problematic for students on the margin of enrollment.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Network Coordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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