We use cookies to provide you with the best possible website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site, as well as cookies used for anonymous statistics, comfort settings, or displaying personalized content. You can decide which categories you want to allow. Please note that depending on your settings, some features of the website may not be available.

Cookie settings

These necessary cookies are required to enable the core functionality of the website. Opting out of these cookies is not possible.

cb-enable
This cookie stores the user's cookie consent status for the current domain. Expiry: 1 year.
laravel_session
Stores the session ID to recognize the user when the page reloads and to restore their login session. Expiry: 2 hours.
XSRF-TOKEN
Provides CSRF protection for forms. Expiry: 2 hours.
IZA Discussion Paper No. 16832
February 2024
Volatility Spillover between Oil Prices and Main Exchange Rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-Connectedness Approach
Leila Ben Salem, Montassar Zayati, Ridha Nouira, Christophe Rault

revised version published inn: Resources Policy, 2024, 91, 104880

This paper investigates the co-movements of oil prices and the exchange rates of 10 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Firstly, we estimated the total static spillover index based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Secondly, we adopted the recent DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach proposed by Gabauer (2020) to conduct a time-varying analysis that investigates the directionally dynamic connectedness among WTI and Shanghai crude oil futures and currency markets. We explored contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from 4 March 2018 to 25 August 2023. We analysed this relationship during four phases: the entire sample; before COVID-19; during COVID-19; and during the Russian–Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series studied, thereby justifying the use of the dynamic connectedness approach. Our findings also reveal strong evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war have altered this link. The connectedness between the two markets (petrol and exchange) was stronger at the beginning of the crisis period and then gradually depreciated in value over time. Our findings reveal that exchange rates for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are more sensitive to oil price shocks during crises than in normal periods. This suggests that volatility contagion between these two markets continues to exist, thus emphasising the role of oil price shocks as net transmitters across the network during extreme scenarios.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Netzwerkkoordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

Über das IZA@LISER Network
Contact
IZA Network (Current Site Operator):

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
11, Porte des Sciences
Maison des Sciences Humaines
L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval, Luxembourg

IZA Institute (In Liquidation):

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH i. L.
Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, 53113 Bonn. Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894-0 | Fax: +49 228 3894-510
E-Mail: info@iza.org | Web: www.iza.org
Represented by: Martin T. Clemens (Liquidator)