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IZA Discussion Paper No. 19082
November 2026
Does Pension Coverage Predict Fertility? International Evidence from OLS, Fixed Effects and Machine Learning Random Forests
Anika Ewald, Patrick A. Puhani

We complement existing literature by estimating determinants of the total fertility rate for 183 economies between 2000 and 2023. Methodologically, we utilise pooled OLS and economy/country fixed-effects regressions and complement them with exploratory random forests, which take into account non-linearities and interaction effects. Variable importance measures suggest that after two indicators for life expectancy, GDP per capita, and schooling, pension coverage is among the more important predictors of fertility. Our results suggest that acknowledging the costs of childbearing and childrearing in pension systems may be a method to address declining fertility.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer-ext@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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