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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18079
August 2025
Discrimination in Retention Decisions and Its Impact on Career Earnings. Evidence from the National Football League
Ian Gregory-Smith, Alex Bryson, Rafael Gomez

We examine the role that racial discrimination plays in the decision to retain or release an employee. Our empirical setting allows us to separate the retention decision from the wage decision. For the first four years of a player’s career, wages are mechanically determined and players are under a restricted ‘rookie’ contract, during which they can be released without cost. Players who survive in the league beyond four years receive a large uptick in their remuneration upon signing their first ‘free-agency’ contract. Consequently, marginal decisions over employment retention during the rookie contract have substantial implications for earnings realised over a player’s career. We find subtle but significant differences in retention rates between Black and White players (approximately 3 percentage points) that can’t be explained by a comprehensive set of individual characteristics including their productivity. We also show that traditional wage gap estimates, which appear to show equal earnings between Black and White players conditional upon playing position and productivity, mask underlying disparities in career earnings that become apparent when adjusting for these unequal retention rates.

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Mark Fallak
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+352 585-855-526
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Olga Nottmeyer
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+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
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The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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